The opening race of the Festival is a 2m1/2 furlong hurdle race on the old course. The race is restricted to novices and often produces winners who continue to shine at the Festival in future years.
Above you can see the list of runners for the 2017 Supreme Novices Hurdle.
Below we highlight some ways to find winners on this race, looking at trends and discussing the form to help you to find the winner of the 2017 Supreme Novices hurdle.
|15/15||were aged between 5yo-8yo, since 2009 they have all been aged between 5yo-6yo|
|15/15||were foaled between the months of March & May (0-75 the others)|
|15/15||did not run in a Class 4 race last time out, 0-66 those who did|
|15/15||had made 2-6 starts that season (0-85 the rest)|
|15/15||had had 3+ career wins (0-80 those less)|
|15/15||had previously won over the trip (0-53 those who hadn’t)|
Supreme Novices Hurdle Trends AnalysisHuge shocks are quite rare in this race
with only the 40/1 Ebaziyan in 2007 apparently unfancied and he was trained by Willie Mullins so perhaps shouldn't have been such a big price!
The last 9 winners all went off no bigger than 12/1.
Of those who held an OR at the time of the race, no winner was rated lower than 136, those rated lower are 0-68.
Since 2005 every winner returned an SP of no bigger than 9/4 on its most recent previous run.
Concentrate on five and six-year-olds
as they have won all bar six of the renewals of this event since 1972! The only recent exceptions to the age trend have both been owned by JP McManus so if your fancy is seven or older but owned by JP it might still be worth considering.
OLBG blogger Robmull
found 4/1 winner Altior last year. Check out his his Supreme Novices hurdle blog for 2017.
Supreme Novices Hurdle Last Ten Winners
The table below shows the last ten winners of the race, their age at the time of winning, trainer, jockey and odds (starting price). Trainer Willie Mullins, owner Rich Ricci and jockey Ruby Walsh have combined to win three of the last four runnings of this race.
|2017||Labaik||6yo||G Elliott||J Kennedy||25/1|
|2016||Alitor||6yo||N Henderson||N de Boinville||4/1|
|2015||Douvan||5yo||W Mullins||R Walsh||2/1F|
|2014||Vautour||5yo||W Mullins||R Walsh||7/2JF|
|2013||Champagne Fever||6yo||W Mullins||R Walsh
|2012||Cinders And Ashes||5yo||D McCain||J Maguire||10/1|
|2011||Al Ferof||5yo||P Nicholls||R Walsh||10/1|
|2010||Menorah||5yo||P Hobbs||R Johnson||12/1|
|2009||Go Native||6yo||N Meade||P Carberry||12/1|
|2008||Captain Cee Bee||7yo||E Harty||R Thornton||17/2|
Supreme Novices Top Trainers
Two trainers have dominated the Supreme Novices Hurdle over the last ten years; Willie Mullins
and Nicky Henderson
. Mullins has won the race an amazing four times in those ten years as well as winning the race way back in 1995.
Last year's win for Altior broke a frustrating run for Nicky Henderson who has had nine of his horses placed in the last ten years without taking the major prize. Henderson had previously won the race with River Ceiriog in 1986 and Flown in 1992.
Below is a table of how Mullins, Henderson and some of the other top trainers have fared in the last ten years:
2016 Supreme Novices winner Altior
|Trainer||Runners||Wins||Places||Win LSP||Each Way LSP|
Supreme Novice Hurdle Tips from The OLBG Forum
OLBG tipster Gman84
thinks that Betfair
Hurdle winner BALLYANDY
still offers good value for the Supreme Novices:
So Ballyandy wins the Betfair Hurdle pretty well and NTD seems keen to head to the Supreme. Plenty of comments on social media of how Ballyandy's win franks the form for Moon Racer (now runs in the Champion Hurdle) however I'm not going to get carried away with the fact Moon Racer got the better in their head to heads so far because in small fields I think Ballyandy struggles whereas Newbury's big field really suited him.
They usually go like he clappers in the Supreme so that suits Ballyandy and how I think he'd like the race ran.
Join in the Supreme Novice Hurdle discussion
with OLBG members on the forum.
The second race on Day 1 is the Arkle Novice Chase
. Check out the tips and race preview for that race here.