Neptune Novices Hurdle PreviewWe have added an expert opinion from OLBG members to the runners above in the Neptune Novices Hurdle where we have tips available. The tips from OLBG can help you decide which horse you should back in this race. More tips for this race are available on the OLBG Horse Racing tips page where you can find out which horse has been tipped most by the OLBG members. Formerly known as the Ballymore Properties Novice Hurdle and before that, the Royal and Sun Alliance Novices Hurdle this is a grade one race over 2miles 5 furlongs for novices.
Neptune Hurdle Trends
|10/10||were aged five or six|
|9/10||were rated 138 or higher|
|9/10||finished 1st or 2nd on their last completed start|
|9/10||had run at least 3 times since November 1st|
|8/10||had their last run that year|
|8/10||had won at least 2 races since November 1st|
Neptune Novices Hurdle Trend AnalysisLooking at recent winners of this race, a five or six year old with recent good form and at odds of 20/1 or less is what we should be looking for. Easy!
This is a great race for trends lovers with only Massini Maguire's victory in 2007 going against the majority of the above trends.
We should be looking for a young hurdler who has already proved themselves in a good class race and has hopefully never finished outside of the first two placings in their races.
In addition to the above it is worth noting that the Challow Hurdle winner has a very poor record in this event.
Also note that Irish hurdlers have a great record in this race, winning 60% of the last ten renewals. OLBG blogger Robmull has put together an in-depth analysis of the Neptune Novices Hurdle here.
Neptune Novice Hurdle Last Ten Winners
Table below shows the last ten winners of the race, their age at the time of winning, trainer, jockey and odds (starting price).
|2016||Yorkhill||6yo||W Mullins||R Walsh||3/1|
|2015||Windsor Park||6yo||D Weld||D Russell||9/2|
|2014||Faugheen||6yo||W Mullins||R Walsh||6/4F|
|2013||The New One||5yo||N Twiston-Davies||S Twiston-Davies||7/2|
|2012||Simonsig||6yo||N Henderson||B Geraghty||2/1F|
|2011||First Lieutenant||6yo||M Morris||D Russell||7/1|
|2010||Peddlers Cross||5yo||D McCain Jnr||J Maguire||7/1|
|2009||Mikael DHaguenet||5yo||W Mullins||R Walsh||5/2F|
|2008||Fiveforthree||6yo||W Mullins||R Walsh||7/1|
|2007||Massinis Maguire||6yo||P Hobbs||R Johnson||20/1|
Below is a table of how some of the other top trainers have fared in the last ten years:
|Trainer||Runners||Wins||Places||Win LSP||Each Way LSP|
|M Morris||6||1||2||2.00||2.39||N Twiston Davies||5||1||0||-0.50||-1.81|
|P Nicholls||5||0||1||-5.00||-3.69||D Pipe||5||0||0||-5.00||-5.00||D Weld||4||1||1||1.50||0.75|
Neptune Novices Hurdle PreviewIt may pay to stay away from horses who have been at the Festival before when looking for the winner of the Neptune as - only two of the last ten winners had previously raced at the Festival - this is probably as this race tends to go to later maturing novices and is in stark contrast to a number of other races in Festival week.
Neptune Novice Hurdle Tips from The OLBG ForumRed hot Neptune favourite Yanworth has impressed a number of OLBG members on the forum but most now feel that the value in the race lies elsewhere with Alan King's horse looking a very short price.
jackh1092 is pleased that Yorkhill has got the go ahead to run in this race rather than the Supreme:
"Got to say I'd think Yorkhill would suit the Neptune trip. His last race, he cruised to the front but found less than expected in front. The ground may have blunted his turn of foot, but the bumper he won last year at Punchestown suggested to me that he wasn't a speed merchant either."
Neptune Novices Hurdle 2016 Video Preview and Tips
Next race up on Day 2 is the RSA Chase where No More Heroes has been ante post favourite for most of the winter. He looked an unlucky loser in last year's Albert Bartlett so can he make amends in the RSA? Check out the tips and race preview for that race here.