National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup Preview
A novices steeple chase over 4 miles for amateur riders only.
National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup Last Ten Winners
Table below shows the last ten winners of the race, their age at the time of winning, trainer, jockey and odds
|2017||Tiger Roll||7yo||G Elliott||Ms L ONeill||16/1|
|2016||Minella Rocco||6yo||JJ ONeill||Mr D OConnor||8/1|
|2015||Cause Of Causes||7yo||G Elliott||Mr JJ Codd||8/1|
|2014||Midnight Prayer||9yo||A King||Mr J Newman||8/1|
|2013||Back In Focus||8yo||W Mullins||Mr P Mullins||9/4F|
|2012||Teaforthree||8yo||Rebecca Curtis||Mr JT McNamara||5/1F|
|2011||Chicago Grey||8yo||G Elliott||Mr D OConnor||5/1F|
|2010||Poker De Sivola||7yo||F Murphy||Ms K Walsh||14/1|
|2009||Tricky Trickster||6yo||N Twiston-Davies||Mr S Twiston-Davies||11/1|
|2008||Old Benny||7yo||A King||Mr C Huxley||9/1|
National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup Trends
|16 / 16||Had won a race going left handed|
|16 / 16||Were sent off no bigger than 40/1|
|16 / 16||Had made at least 4 starts at left handed tracks|
|16 / 16||Ran in a field of no more than 12 runners last time out|
|16 / 16||Had made at least 3 starts over fences|
|15 / 16||Finished in the first five on debut|
|15 / 16||Had made at least 4 starts that season|
National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup Analysis
Stamina is obviously the key here but the question is how to ascertain if your selection is likely to stay this marathon trip at what is likely to be an early stage of a steeplechase career?
A good stat to concentrate on is when contenders have had form over three miles and further over hurdles as these horses are more likely to translate that stamina from the smaller obstacles to this extreme distance over fences.
Also, look out for a high stamina index from the sire of your selection. For example, the 2014 winner Midnight Prayer had a stamina index of 13.3f. The higher this figure is the greater the influence of stamina. Look for sires around the 12/13f figure or above.
This has become a decent race for horses at the head of the market with six of the last seven winners returning a starting price of 8/1 or under.
The conditions of this race changed in 2010 and since then the highest rated horse has won three times.
This suggests that we should be focusing on the classier runners rather than trying to find a horse likely to improve for a step up in distance.
Other information to note is the great records of owner JP McManus (six winners in the race) and of trainer Jonjo ONeill who has won this race five times since 2002 (as well as also winning the race in 1995!)
National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup Trainer StatisticsBelow is a table of how the top trainers have fared in this race in the last ten years:
|Trainer||Runners||Wins||Places (Inc Wins)||Win LSP||Each Way LSP|
|W P Mullins||11||1||4||-7.75||-2.05|
Gordon Elliott won with Tiger Roll in 2017 which moved him onto three wins in the past ten years adding to the success with Cause of Causes and Chicago Grey and any runners from the Elliott yard should get the closest inspection.
Alan King has two winners in the last ten years and this looks like a race that King likes to target.
This seems to be one race at the Festival that Nicky Henderson does not take too seriously with the master of Seven Barrows running just four horses here in the last ten years and all bar one of those started at 20/1 or bigger.
National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup Jockey Preview
Making sure you have a top amateur rider on your selection may seem an obvious statement but the advantage gained by having a one of the more established amateurs on board cannot be underestimated.
A scan of the last ten years shows that this race has tended to fall to the best pilots and one rider in particular is well worth siding with. Top Irish point to point rider Derek O'Connor won the race in 2011 and again in 2016 and his record in the race makes impressive reading.
Below is a table of how the top amateur riders have fared in the National Hunt Chase in the last ten years:
|Jockey||Runners||Wins||Places (Inc Wins)||Win LSP||Each Way LSP|
|Mr Derek OConnor||9||2||5||6.00||5.85|
|Mr J J Codd||8||1||1||1.00||-2.20|
|Mr P W Mullins||7||1||3||-3.75||0.55|
|Mr S Waley-Cohen||7||1||2||5.00||3.10|
|Ms K Walsh||6||1||3||9.00||6.50|
|Mr Joshua Newman||4||1||1||5.00||1.80|
|Ms L ONeill||1||1||1||16.00||9.60|
|Ms N Carberry||9||0||3||-9.00||-5.05|
Other top Irish amateurs such as Jamie Codd, Katie Walsh and Patrick Mullins have all managed to win the race once.
Top English amateur Sam Waley Cohen has ridden in this race seven times in the last ten years. He has managed a win at 11/1 and another placed ride at 20/1.
Tips from the OLBG forum on the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup
OLBG member ”TeddyT” is keen on the chances of Mossback:"This will be a real slog and a horse who looks like he will be suited by four miles and very soft ground is Mossback, whose pedigree is filled with stamina. Trained by man of the moment Gordon Elliott, who has won this race three times in the last seven years, and ridden by last year’s successful jockey, Mossback looks to have everything going for him and should be boxing on when most of the field have cried enough."
See more tips on the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup here via the OLBG forum.
The final race on Day 1 is the Close Brothers Novice’s Handicap Chase Check out the tips and race preview for that race here.