Fred Winter Juvenile Novices Handicap Hurdle Tips and Betting

Fred Winter Juvenile Novices Handicap Hurdle Preview

The Fred Winter Hurdle is a handicap race for four-year-old novice hurdlers run over 2m 110 yards where trainers can try and take advantage with a well handicapped horse. Can you spot the blot on the handicap?

Fred Winter Juvenile Novices Handicap Hurdle Last Ten Winners

Table below shows the last ten winners of the race.
2017Flying Tiger11-5N WilliamsR Johnson9/2JF
2016Diego Du Charmil11-1P NichollsS Twiston-Davies13/2
2015Qualando11-0P NichollsN Scholfield25/1
2014Hawk High11-1T EasterbyB Hughes33/1
2013Flaxen Flare10-7G ElliottD Condon25/1
2012Une Artiste10-8N HendersonJ McGrath40/1
2011What A Charm10-6A MooreP Townend9/1
2010Sanctuaire11-9P NichollsR Walsh4/1F
2009Silk Affair10-4M QuinlanT OBrien11/1
2008Crack Away Jack11-10Miss E LavelleP Carberry14/1

Fred Winter Juvenile Novices Handicap Hurdle Trends

13 / 13Had not made between 8 & 11 career starts (0-102 those who had)
13 / 13Had not recorded 2 wins that season (0-91 those who had)
13 / 13Were sent off no bigger than 40/1
13 / 13Were either winless or had won at least a Class 4
13 / 13Did not make their debut on the All Weather
12 / 13Held an official rating of between 124 & 134
12 / 13Had ran within the past 37 days
12 / 13Were either Irish or French bred runners
12 / 13Carried no more than 159lbs (11-5)
11 / 13Had previously only been ridden by the jockey once or not at all

Fred Winter Juvenile Novices Handicap Hurdle Trends Analysis

Those runners who have started life on the flat have tended to have achieved a decent rating on the level with all of the winners who fit that criterion having achieved a mark of 79 or above.

Fillies also have a great record in this race winning four of the thirteen renewals from a very small percentage of the overall number of runners.

Four of the last six winners have returned an SP of 25/1 or bigger, although the previous two winners have been well fancied.

The general call for this race is we should be looking for an unexposed juvenile that is coming into the race on the back of a win or an eye-catching run and has recorded no more than two previous hurdle wins.

Fred Winter Juvenile Novices Handicap Hurdle Trainer Statistics

Below is a table of how some of the other top trainers have fared in the last ten years:

TrainerRunnersWinsPlaces (Inc Wins)Win LSPEach Way LSP
Paul Nicholls173921.5024.82
Nicky Henderson131228.0014.06
Gordon Elliott101316.009.38
Nick Williams51229.0019.13
Tim Easterby21132.0019.63
Emma Lavelle21113.007.75
Michael Quinlan11111.006.88
A L T Moore1119.005.63
Alan King1604-16.00-5.00
David Pipe1103-11.00-7.58

Paul Nicholls has a phenomenal record in this race and provided the winner and second placed horse in 2015 and 2016. The champion trainer has sent out three winners and six other placed horse from from 17 runners over the last ten seasons. A superb achievement.

Gordon Elliott and Nick Williams have also done well with their runners in this race but shocks are frequent in this race with smaller yards responsible for a number of wins.

Two trainers who have a surprisingly poor record in this race are Willie Mullins and Philip Hobbs.

Fred Winter Juvenile Novices Handicap Hurdle Tips from The OLBG Forum

OLBG member 'shrews' likes the chances of Act of Valour -

"Paul Nicholls has an excellent record in this with a 1st and 2nd in 2016 and 2015, 2nd and 4th in 2014, 2nd and 3rd in 2013 and a win in 2011. That's pretty impressive and shows he clearly targets the race. He currently has four entries but this horse looks the best of them judged on his 4l 2nd last time out to one of the Triumph Hurdle principals We Have A Dream. This is the only entry for the horse at the festival."

See the latest news on the Fred Winter Hurdle here via the OLBG forum.

The final race on Day 2 will be the Champion Bumper Check out the tips and race preview for that race here.