Fred Winter Hurdle Preview
Fred Winter Hurdle Trends
|12/12||ran in at least a Class 4 last time out and finished in the first 7|
|12/12||made their debut over at least 7f|
|11/12||held an OR of between 124-133 at the time of the race|
|11/12||ran off weights between 10-4 & 11-4|
|11/12||had run since Feb 1st|
|10/12||had won a race since October 31st|
|8/12||did not win either of their first two starts over hurdles|
Fred Winter AnalysisThe most interesting of the above stats is the fact that only four of the twelve winners of this race had won until at least their third race over hurdles.
Failing to win until their third start meant that their original handicap mark gave plenty of scope for improvement.
The general call for this race we should be looking for a juvenile that took a while to hit form but comes into the race on the back of a win or an eye-catching run.
Fred Winter Hurdle Last Ten WinnersTable below shows the last ten winners of the race.
|2017||Flying Tiger||11-5||N Williams||R Johnson||9/2JF|
|2016||Diego Du Charmil||11-1||P Nicholls||S Twiston-Davies||13/2|
|2015||Qualando||11-0||P Nicholls||N Scholfield||25/1|
|2014||Hawk High||11-1||T Easterby||B Hughes||33/1|
|2013||Flaxen Flare||10-7||G Elliott||D Condon||25/1|
|2012||Une Artiste||10-8||N Henderson||J McGrath||40/1|
|2011||What A Charm||10-6||A Moore||P Townend||9/1|
|2010||Sanctuaire||11-9||P Nicholls||R Walsh||4/1F|
|2009||Silk Affair||10-4||M Quinlan||T OBrien||11/1|
|2008||Crack Away Jack||11-10||Miss E Lavelle||P Carberry||14/1|
OLBG blogger Micko70 has written a blog on this race. Check out his his trends based blog here.
|Trainer||Number of runners||Wins||Other Placed Horses||Win LSP||Each Way LSP|
Paul Nicholls has a phenomenal record in this race and provided the winner and second placed horse in each of the last two years. The champion trainer has sent out three winners and six other placed horse from from 15 runners over the last ten seasons. A superb achievement.
Gordon Elliott and David Pipe have also done well with their runners in this race but shocks are frequent in this race with smaller yards responsible for a number of wins.
Three trainers who have a surprisingly poor record in this race are Willie Mullins, Philip Hobbs and Venetia Williams.
Fred Winter Hurdle PreviewThose runners who have started life on the flat have tended to have achieved a decent rating on the level with all of the winners who fit that criterion having achieved a mark of 79 or above.
Fillies also have a great record in this race winning four of the twelve renewals from a very small percentage of the overall number of runners.
Four of the last five winners have returned an SP of 25/1 or bigger.
Fred Winter Forum TipsOLBG member JoeWBA makes a good case for supporting an interesting runner from the Nick Williams yard:
See the latest news on the Fred Winter Hurdle here via the OLBG forum.
Diable De Sivola for Nick Williams interests me for this. Less than 2 lengths behind Defi Du Seuil, when giving him 4lbs, in the same race that stablemate Coo Star Sivola finished 2nd in last season before finishing third in the Fred Winter at a big price. The way they've backed off him suggests to me that they're happy enough with his mark of 130 and are looking after it with a view to a crack at this.
Obviously you can't use Defi Du Seuil's current mark of 155 as a literal guide to how much Diable potentially has in hand but it certainly points to him having a few pounds up his sleeve. Decent bit of course form is always a bonus too.
The final race on Day 2 will be the Champion Bumper where all eyes will be on Willie Mullins who will be trying for an amaing ninth victory in this race. Check out the tips and race preview for that race here.