Cheltenham Gold Cup Tips and Betting

Cheltenham Gold Cup Preview

A grade one chase run over three miles two and a half furlongs featuring the best UK and Irish trained chasers, the race has also been won by French raiders in the past. The Cheltenham Gold Cup is a true test of a chaser, key attributes required are the ability to jump fluently (those that are prone to fencing errors tend to get found out), tactical race speed as the Gold Cup is usually run at a quicker pace than other chases, stamina to see out the race distance and the uphill finish and be able to act on the undulating track at Cheltenham. The Cheltenham Gold Cup is the 'Blue-Riband' of National Hunt racing.

Gold Cup Last Ten Winners

Table below shows the last ten Gold Cup winners, their age at the time of winning their trainer, jockey and starting price betting odds.
2017Sizing John7yoJ HarringtonR Power7/1
2016Don Cossack9yoG ElliottBJ Cooper9/4F
2015Coneygree8yoM BradstockN de Boinville7/1
2014Lord Windermere8yoJ CullotyD Russell20/1
2013Bobs Worth8yoN HendersonB Geraghty11/4F
2012Synchronised9yoJJ O'NeillAP McCoy8/1
2011Long Run6yoN HendersonMr S Waley-Cohen7/2F
2010Imperial Commander9yoN Twiston-DaviesP Brennan7/1
2009Kauto Star9yoP NichollsR Walsh7/4F
2008Denman8yoP NichollsS Thomas9/4

Gold Cup Trends

16 / 16Had previously won a Grade 1 race
16 / 16Had a Career win strike rate of 33% or more
16 / 16Were no more than 2 years older than the youngest horse in the race
16 / 16Were no older than 9yo
16 / 16Had previously been ridden by the jockey on 2+ occasions
16 / 16Had at least a 30 day break since its last run
16 / 16Were sent off no bigger than 8/1 LTO
16 / 16Made their debut in either an NHF or Hurdle race
16 / 16Did not run at Cheltenham last time out
16 / 16Ran in a Graded race last time out
16 / 16Had made 1-5 starts that season
13 / 16Held an official rating of at least 166

Should We Avoid The Veterans?

One of the regular trends for the Gold Cup each year is the seemingly poor recent record of horses aged ten and above. Cool Dawn’s 25/1 victory in 1998 was the last time a horse in that age group recorded a win.

These statistics seem to suggest that older horses are unlikely to be winning in 2018 but is that really the case?

Ten-year-old On His Own was beaten just a short-head by Lord Windermere in 2010 and Denman (twice), Kauto Star and Mon Mome were all placed in the Gold Cup when ten or older. Cue Card was ten years old when contesting the 2016 renewal and looked all set to be involved in the finish before taking a bad fall at the third last fence.

The reality of the actual numbers for horses aged ten or over in the last ten renewals are as follows:

• 33 horses aged 10 to 12 have run in the Gold Cup in the last ten years

• 0 have won

• 5 have been placed

• 12 failed to complete the course

• 16 completed the course outside of the places

• 10 were priced at 66/1 or above

• 7 were priced at 5/1 or shorter and recorded the following finishes: F, F, PU, 3, PU, 2, F

Gold Cup Trainer Statistics

Below is a table of how some of the other top trainers have fared in the last ten years:

TrainerRunnersWinsPlaces (Inc Wins)Win LSPEach Way LSP
Paul Nicholls2328-17.00-10.61
Nicky Henderson924-0.75-1.73
Jonjo ONeill7132.002.40
Nigel Twiston-Davies5113.000.20
Mark Bradstock4114.001.20
J H Culloty21119.0011.00
Gordon Elliott2111.250.35
Mrs John Harrington1117.004.20
W P Mullins1205-12.00-5.60
Alan King500-5.00-5.00

Willie Mullins has become the dominant trainer at the Cheltenham Festival over the last couple of years but he has yet to win the Gold Cup despite finishing runner-up on no less than six occasions, including in three of the last four years.

Paul Nicholls is a four time winner of the Gold Cup and sent out the winner or the runner up in every year from 2007 to 2011. 2016 was the first year Nicholls did not have a runner in the Gold Cup since 2004.

Nicky Henderson has won the Gold Cup twice in the last seven years but did not have a runner in 2017.

Jonjo ONeill's runners in the Gold Cup are usually extremely well supported with five of his six runners in the last ten years going off at odds of under 10/1, he also had the 18/1 runner up in 2017.

Gordon Elliott won the Gold Cup with his first ever runner in 2016 and with his powerful connections looks sure to add to this win in the next few years.

Gold Cup Tips from Jockeys Ten Year Record

Ruby Walsh's six rides where he has completed the course in the last ten years have all finished no worse than fourth.

Barry Geraghty has rewarded each-way punters just once in the last ten years when successful on Bobs Worth at 11/4 in 2013.

Paddy Brennan won on 7/1 shot Imperial Commander in 2010 and would surely have gone close again in 2016 had Cue Card not fallen at the third last fence.

Davy Russell rode the biggest priced winner of the Gold Cup since 1998 when partnering Lord Windermere to success in 2014.

Bryan Cooper has had just three rides in the Gold Cup and has rewarded each-way support twice, finishing third on Road To Riches in 2015 and winning on Don Cossack in 2016.

Amazingly Champion Jockey Richard Johnson has had just two rides in the Gold Cup in the last ten years partnering Captain Chris into sixth in 2013 and finishing third on Native River last year.

Gold Cup Tips from The OLBG Forum

OLBG member ”drogerson” fancies Might Bite:

""I can't get away from MIGHT BITE. He's an unbeaten (bar the fall when he was well clear), triple Grade 1 chase winner and he's still available at a great price. They went off hard again in the King George, but yet again he saw them off. I feel his reputation has been dampened somewhat by his antics in the RSA but since then he was done nothing but win. I don't think he has to lead and given what happened in the King George they may let someone else bowl along early doors before taking it up to conserve more energy. That said, I've got very few doubts about his profile to win the race (recent RSA winners are prolific in the Gold Cup) and at the current price looks a standout bet."

See the latest news on the Gold Cup here via the OLBG forum.

Next on Day 4 is the Foxhunters. Check out the tips and race preview here.