Arkle Chase Preview
See what Nicky Henderson has to say about Altior and other festival runners. We caught up with him at his yard for this exclusive interview.
Arkle Chase Last Ten WinnersTable below shows the last ten winners of the race, their age at the time of winning, trainer, jockey and odds (starting price).
|2017||Altior||7yo||N Henderson||N De Boinville||1/4F|
|2016||Douvan||6yo||W Mullins||R Walsh||1/4F|
|2015||Un De Sceaux||7yo||W Mullins||R Walsh||4/6F|
|2014||Western Warhorse||6yo||D Pipe||T Scudamore||33/1||2013||Simonsig||7yo||N Henderson||B Geraghty||8/15F|
|2012||Sprinter Sacre||6yo||N Henderson||B Geraghty||8/11F|
|2011||Captain Chris||7yo||P Hobbs||R Johnson||6/1|
|2010||Sizing Europe||8yo||H De Bromhead||A Lynch||6/1|
|2009||Forpadydeplasterer||7yo||T Cooper||B Geraghty||8/1|
|2008||Tidal Bay||7yo||JH Johnson||D ORegan||6/1|
Arkle Chase Trends
|15/15||had run 4-7 times in the past 365 days|
|15/15||had previously been ridden by the jockey 3+ times (0-40 those less)|
|15/15||had previously had 1-5 runs in chases|
|15/15||had run no more than 5 times that season (0-49 those who had run more)|
|15/15||were no bigger than 9/2 on their latest run|
|15/15||ran in a field of 3-7 runners last time out|
|15/15||made 1-2 starts in the past 90 days|
|14/15||had previously won either a Grade 1 or Grade 2|
Arkle Trends AnalysisThe introduction of the two and a half mile JLT novice chase in 2011 has resulted in a dramatic change in the field size for the Arkle with only one occasion in the last five years where ten or more horses went to post. Prior to the introduction of the JLT we have to go back to Azertyuiops victory in 2003 to find the last single figure field.
The reduction in runners may have aided the chances of the more fancied runners with the chance of encountering traffic problems or being brought down greatly reduced. This appears to be backed up by the fact that odds-on favourites have won four of the last five runnings of the Arkle suggesting this race is becoming the most predictable race at the Cheltenham Festival.
Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson have had a powerful grip on this race in recent years with two wins a piece and another short-head second for Mullins in the last five renewals.
OLBG blogger Micko70 has written a blog on the Arkle. Check out his his trends based blog here.
Below is a table of how Mullins, Henderson and some of the other top trainers have fared in the last ten years:
|Trainer||Runners||Wins||Places||Win LSP||Each Way LSP|
|P Hobbs||6||1||2||1.00||1.42||D Pipe||5||1||0||29.00||16.63||H De Bromhead||3||1||1||4.00||3.38||A King||3||1||0||1.50||0.19|
Arkle Novice Chase Tips from The OLBG ForumNicky Henderson's Altior appears to have rather spoilt the Arkle from a betting perspective with his four prep race wins seeing his odds cut into a best price of 1/3 at the the time of writing.
OLBG stalwart Brownie3 is sitting on a lovely ante post of 4/1 about Altior so he will be hoping the Henderson horse continues in his current imperious form.
OLBG member pompeybuster12 has suggested FOREST BIHAN as a value bet against the very short priced favourite:
Brian Ellison's chaser could still be the each-way shout for those not interested in the short odds on Altior.
I like FOREST BIHAN in the Arkle , although I may have to accept that he is running for place money , looks like one to really benefit from the ferocius gallop at the festival , lacks top class experience but quickened up nicely in a graded novice chase last time , more cover looks likely to see improvement for one that is currently 20/1.
See the latest news on the Arkle Novice Chase here via the OLBG forum.
Next race up on Day 1 is the Ultima Business Solutions Handicap. Check out the tips and race preview for that race here.