National Hunt Challenge Cup Tips and Betting

Martello Tower

17.00

Milsean

26.00

Fagan

21.00

Unowhatimeanharry

21.00

Balko Des Flos

26.00

Barters Hill

26.00

Shantou Village

34.00

Noble Endeavor

21.00

Fletchers Flyer

21.00

Champers On Ice

26.00

Up For Review

34.00

Bleu Et Rouge

26.00

Gangster

26.00

Wotzizname

34.00

West Approach

34.00

Open Eagle

41.00

National Hunt Challenge Cup Preview

A steeple chase over 4 miles for amateur riders only.



National Hunt Chase Trends

10/10had ran at least three times over fences
8/10were aged 7 or 8
8/10had run at least 4 times since 1st November
8/10had won a race since 1st November
7/10were rated 129 or higher
7/10finished 1st or 2nd on their last completed start
7/10had their last run that year


National Hunt Chase Analysis

Stamina is obviously the key here but the question is how to ascertain if your selection is likely to stay this marathon trip at what is likely to be an early stage of a steeplechase career?

A good stat to concentrate on is when contenders have had form over three miles and further over hurdles as these horses are more likely to translate that stamina from the smaller obstacles to this extreme distance over fences.

Also, look out for a high stamina index from the sire of your selection. For example, the 2014 winner Midnight Prayer had a stamina index of 13.3f. The higher this figure is the greater the influence of stamina. Look for sires around the 12/13f figure or above.

This has become a decent race for favourites with three of the last five market leaders obliging.

Other information to note is the great records of owner JP McManus (five winners in the race) and of trainer Jonjo ONeill who has won this race an amazing four times in the last fourteen years (as well as also winning the race in 1995!)



National Hunt Chase Last Ten Winners

Table below shows the last ten winners of the race, their age at the time of winning, trainer, jockey and odds

YearHorseAgeTrainerJockeyPrice
2016Minella Rocco6yoJJ ONeillMr D OConnor8/1
2015Cause Of Causes7yoG ElliottMr JJ Codd8/1
2014Midnight Prayer9yoA KingMr J Newman8/1
2013Back In Focus8yoW MullinsMr P Mullins9/4F
2012Teaforthree8yoRebecca CurtisMr JT McNamara5/1F
2011Chicago Grey8yoG ElliottMr Derek OConnor5/1F
2010Poker De Sivola7yoF MurphyMs K Walsh14/1
2009Tricky Trickster6yoN Twiston-DaviesMr S Twiston-Davies11/1
2008Old Benny7yoA KingMr C Huxley9/1
2007Butlers Cabin7yoJJ ONeillMr A Berry33/1


National Hunt Chase Preview

Making sure you have a top amateur rider on your selection may seem an obvious statement but the advantage gained by having a one of the more established amateurs on board cannot be underestimated.

A scan of the last ten years shows that this race has tended to fall to the best pilots and one rider in particular is well worth siding with. Top Irish point to point rider Derek O'Connor won the race in 2011 for Gordon Elliott and his overall record in the race makes impressive reading: 32F142P254

The conditions of this race changed in 2010 and since then the highest rated horse has won three times.

This suggests that we should be focusing on the classier runners rather than trying to find a horse likely to improve for a step up in distance.

This is a hard race to work out too far in advance. The OLBG forum discussion has been focused around trying to understand which horses will run in the race. The Market Man thinks Roi Des Francs will run in this race, with Black Hercules going elsewhere.

" Growing confidence through the Mullins family for Roi Des Francs

Thomas, who sold the horse to Willie, thinks he'll win this and has been telling him so for months. This leads to Willie sending Black Hercules elsewhere and though the obvious choice is the RSA, he's been very impressed with No More Heroes - this led to considering the JLT. However, more likely to be RSA. "e;

As we get closer to the race there will be far more information available here.