Fred Winter Hurdle PreviewThe Fred Winter Hurdle is a handicap race for four-year-old hurdlers run over 2m 110 yards where trainers can try and take advantage with a well handicapped horse. Can you spot the blot on the handicap?
Fred Winter Hurdle Trends
|10/10||had run since February 1st|
|10/10||had won a race since October 31st|
|9/10||were rated 124 or higher|
|8/10||had run at least 3 times since November 1st|
|7/10||carried 10-11 or more|
|7/10||did not win until their third start over hurdles or later|
|6/10||won their last completed start|
Fred Winter AnalysisThe most interesting of the above stats is the fact that only three of the ten winners of this race had won until at least their third race over hurdles.
Failing to win until their third start meant that their original handicap mark gave plenty of scope for improvement.
The general call for this race we should be looking for a juvenile that took a while to hit form but comes into the race on the back of a win or an eye-catching run.
Fred Winter Hurdle Last Ten WinnersTable below shows the last ten winners of the race.
|2016||Diego Du Charmil||11-1||P Nicholls||S Twiston-Davies||13/2|
|2015||Qualando||11-0||P Nicholls||N Scholfield||25/1|
|2014||Hawk High||11-1||T Easterby||B Hughes||33/1|
|2013||Flaxen Flare||10-7||G Elliott||D Condon||25/1|
|2012||Une Artiste||10-8||N Henderson||J McGrath||40/1|
|2011||What A Charm||10-6||A Moore||P Townend||9/1|
|2010||Sanctuaire||11-9||P Nicholls||R Walsh||4/1F|
|2009||Silk Affair||10-4||M Quinlan||T OBrien||11/1|
|2008||Crack Away Jack||11-10||Miss E Lavelle||P Carberry||14/1|
|2007||Gaspara||10-11||D Pipe||A Glassonbury||9/2JF|
Fred Winter Hurdle PreviewHorses that started their career on the flat appear to have an advantage over their jumping counterparts with only four of the last ten winners starting off in bumpers or over hurdles.
Those runners who have started life on the flat have tended to have achieved a decent rating on the level with all of the winners who fit that criterion having achieved a mark of 79 or above.
Fillies also have a great record in this race winning four of the ten renewals from a very small percentage of the overall number of runners.
Certain trainers have obviously made a point of targeting this race with Paul Nicholls, David Pipe and Gordon Elliott all having excellent records. Three trainers who have a surprisingly poor record in this race are Willie Mullins, Philip Hobbs and Venetia Williams.
Fred Winter Forum TipsOver on the OLBG Forum The Market Man thinks that Paul Nicholls is the trainer to follow once again in this race:
"Champion trainer Paul Nicholls has two wins and three seconds in the last six years. Victories came with French imports who were well handicapped and the word is Diego Du Charmil is capable of much higher than his current rating of 133. Clean and quick over his hurdles, he's the type to figure prominently in the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle."
A number of the other forumites are disappointed by the handicap mark Gordon Elliott's Campeador has received. Rated 133 in Ireland the British handicapper has apparently scuppered some good ante post bets by giving the horse a mark of 141 in the UK.
Big priced winners have dominated this race for the last four years and Derbz87 thinks we may be in line for another surprise in 2016:
"I like Kasakh Noir from Skelton's yard on 133 at moment (now 137) beaten by Fixe Le Kap and Tommy Silver previously when conceding weight but the horse is well thought of by the yard and they want to avoid the Triumph. Won both his other hurdle races."
The final race on Day 2 is the Champion Bumper which has been won in the past subsequent superstars Florida Pearl and Cue Card. Check out the tips and race preview for that race here.